New Delhi, Mar 11 (KNN) India’s wheat production is expected to reach a record 115.3 million tonnes (MT) during the 2024-25 crop year (July-June), reflecting a 2 percent increase over the previous year, according to the second advance estimate of major crops released by the agriculture ministry on Monday.
The government’s projection addresses concerns about the potential impact of above-normal temperatures on rabi crop yields, particularly wheat, chana, and mustard.
Wheat inflation stood at 8.8 percent in January 2025 on a year-over-year basis, maintaining single-digit levels since August 2023.
The wheat processing industry had recently estimated the current year’s wheat output at 110 MT, compared to 105-106 MT in the previous year, indicating that the government’s projection exceeds industry expectations.
Officials noted that wheat harvesting has already commenced in several states, including Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Bihar.
Market arrivals in key growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh are expected to begin by the end of the current month.
The agriculture ministry clarified that the rabi crop production estimates are based on average yields and remain subject to adjustment in subsequent estimates upon receipt of more accurate yield data from crop cutting experiments.
This season’s wheat sowing has expanded to 32 million hectares (Mha), surpassing last year’s 31.56 Mha and exceeding the average sown area of the past five years.
The food ministry has projected wheat procurement by government agencies at 31 MT for the 2025-26 rabi marketing season (April-June), representing a 26 percent increase over the actual purchase of 26.6 MT in the 2024-25 marketing season.
Currently, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) maintains a wheat stock of 13.55 MT, which exceeds the buffer requirement of 7.46 MT for April 1.
Industry estimates suggest that wheat stocks are likely to range between 10-11 MT at the beginning of the next fiscal year, marginally above the required buffer level.
As part of the government’s market intervention strategy to control prices, the FCI has sold 3 MT of wheat to bulk buyers, including flour millers, during the current fiscal year.
Regarding kharif output, the agriculture ministry has forecast record production of rice (120.67 MT), maize (24.81 MT), groundnut (10.42 MT), and soybean (15.13 MT) for the 2024-25 crop year.
Last year, the government established a target of record foodgrain production (comprising rice, wheat, pulses, and millets) of 341.55 MT for the 2024-25 crop year, representing an increase of approximately 3 percent over the 332.2 MT achieved in the 2023-24 crop year.
The agriculture ministry noted that the third advance estimate, expected to be released in May, will incorporate production figures for various summer crops, including rice, pulses, and oilseeds.
In preparing the kharif crop production estimates, the ministry has utilised yield data from crop cutting experiments, validating and triangulating state-provided crop area information with data from remote sensing, weekly crop weather watch groups, and other agencies.
(KNN Bureau)
