Macquarie on Titan
Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 4000
Pre-Q4: Healthy jewellery sales growth; sales above estimates
Expect 20% standalone EBITDA growth in Q4
Growth was led by double-digit growth in ticket size with single-digit buyer growth
Healthy growth in Q4 is encouraging and enhances confidence in our EPS estimates
MS on Titan
Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 3876
Q4: Jewellery – Headline Strong; Internals Mixed
Jewellery business delivered single digit buyer growth owing to sluggish demand at low price points
Demand at higher price points sustained thus driving high double digit ticket size growth
Management called out green shoots in the solitaire business led by both buyer and value growth
Citi on Titan
Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 3550
Jewellery (ex-bullion) reported 25% YoY growth (21% YoY growth in FY25) led by 15% SSG/LFL in 4Q
Management highlighted
a) plain (gold) jewellery grew 27% YoY & coins grew 65% YoY
b) single-digit buyer growth due to sluggish consumer demand
c) high double-digit growth in ticket sizes
d) low double-digit YoY growth for studded jewellery although solitaire segment witnessed turnaround & registered both buyer and value growth YoY
Watch Out For Margin Trajectory
Macquarie India Strategy
Super 6s buy ideas list swapping 3 global facing names with relatively insulated domestic names
Include – Bharti Airtel, UltraTech and GAIL
Exclude – Sun Pharma, Tata Motors and Wipro
Airtel – best ‘flight to safety’ large-cap holding.; have high visibility in India ROIC
UltraTech – believe the cement sector is well-placed
Gail – see tactical upside from a 10-30% hike in transmission tariffs
Controversial Trent in Core list and still see the company best placed to drive Asia-leading top-line growth with best-in-class inventory turns and a largely insulated local supply-chain
BoFA Sec on Tata Motors
Neutral, TP cut to Rs 655
Good Q4 JLR update but it does not matter anymore? US tariff & vol pause create uncertainty near term on biz & cash burn
India biz 475/sh & possibly bear case bt JLR does not warrant zero value fundamentally
Current stock implies 0.3xP/B for JLR
Cut EPS by 16%
Key to watch: UK govt bilateral deal/ support & competitor pricing action
MS On Tata Motors
Equal Weight Call, Target Price At Rs853/sh
Focus Shifts To FY26 As Recent Changes In Auto Tariffs Affect Q4FY25
JLR Showed 1% YoY Growth In Volumes
North America Contributing 31% Of Q4 Volumes Up 14% YoY
JLR Net Debt-free With An Estimated Q4 FCF Of GBP 1.2 Billion
CLSA On Bajaj Finance
Outperform Call, Target Price At Rs11,000/sh
FY25 Saw Slower Growth & Moderated RoE Due To Higher Credit Costs
With Asset Quality Improving, Expect Strong Growth From FY26
PAT CAGR Expected At 22-23%, With AUM Growth Of 25%
MS On Macrotech Developers
Equal Weight Call, Target Price At Rs1,230/sh
FY26 Growth Expected To Be Driven By New Projects In Pune/Bangalore
Pre-sales For Q4 Missed Estimates, But Collections Were Strong
Momentum Slowed With QoQ Growth At 3%
MS On Tata Steel
Equal Weight Call, Target Price At Rs160/sh
Indian Sales Volumes Grew 3% YoY, With Strong Domestic Sales Up 7% YoY
Exports Lower At 6% Due To Volume Transfer To UK Unit
Tata Steel UK Shows Improvement In Sales
MS On JSW Steel
Overweight Call, Target Price Rs1,150/sh
Production & Sales On Track With Revised Guidance
Expecting 12% YoY Growth At The Consolidated Level
Awaiting Further Clarity With Results On May 23
GS on Financial
Believe “muddle through” scenario for Indian Financials could be coming closer to an end
Near term data points could remain soft, given sluggish credit growth, impact on NIMs due to lead/lag between loans vs. deposits & elevated credit costs, driving modest EPS cuts of 2% on avg for FY26E
Believe sector could be closer to bottom of cycle
PNB Housing: Upgrade To Buy Call, Target Price At Rs1,184/sh
Axis Bank: Upgrade to Buy Call, Target Price At Rs1,228/ash
SBI: Upgrade To Neutral from Sell, Target Price At Rs823/sh
Top pick: HDFC Bank
Other buys: AU SFB, Kotak Bank, SBI Card, Chola, Shriram Fin, L&T Fin and Aavas
GS On Piramal Pharma
Initiate Buy Call, Target Price Rs275/sh
Positioned For Top-quartile Profit Growth
PBT Margin Expected To Rise From Approx 3% In FY24 To Over 16% By FY28
Growth Drivers: CDMO Biz, CHG Capacity Expansion & Turnaround Of ICH Biz
GS On Suven Pharma
Initiate Buy Call, Target Price At Rs1,350/sh
Strong Rebound Expected From FY26
Strong Rebound Driven By Top Drugs & Potential New Drug Approvals
Successful Integration Of Cohance, Sapala & NJ Bio Expected To Contribute To >20% EBITDA CAGR
CLSA On Bajaj Finserv
Outperform Call, Target Price At Rs11,000/sh
FY25 Saw Slower Growth & Moderated RoE Due To Higher Credit Costs
With Asset Quality Improving, Expect Strong Growth From FY26
PAT CAGR Expected At 22-23%, With AUM Growth Of 25%
MS On Interglobe Aviation
Overweight Call, Target Price Raised To Rs6,085/sh
Strong Q4 Expected Due To Supportive Yields & Tighter Industry Capacity
Positive Impact From Business Class Ramp-up & Weakness In Fuel Prices
IndiGo’s EV/EBITDA For FY26 & FY27 Expected At 10.4x & 8.3x
CLSA on Oil & Gas
Govt. announced c.Rs2/litre hike in excise duty on petrol/diesel
This hike, equivalent to http://c.US$4/bbl, is just 1/3rd of $12/bbl fall in crude price seen in last 3 sessions
Est. this will take up govt’s tax collections by $4bn
Even after this hike, marketing margin on diesel/petrol will remain higher
Domestic LPG price was also increased by Rs50/cylinder, which should nearly half LPG under-recovery and provide relief to IOC, BP and HP
HSBC on OMCs
In just 2 days of falling oil prices, govt swiftly increased excise duty on petrol/diesel
Oil Price, Excise Duty & Pump Price Support High Margin, But Raise Risk Perception
Maintain Buy Call On BPCL, HPCL & IOCL
Cut Target Valuation Multiples Due To Increased Risk Perception
IOC – Buy, TP cut to Rs 150
BPCL – Buy, TP cut to Rs 400
HPCL – Buy, TP raised to Rs 480
CITI on OMCs
In a slightly indirect manner, gov’t has effectively used recent fall in crude oil prices to compensate OMCs for their LPG losses
Key announcements made
1) Excise duty on petrol & diesel to be increased by Rs2/ltr
2) Corresponding increase in gov’t rev of Rs330bn (annualised) would, in turn, be used to compensate OMCs for Rs413bn of LPG losses incurred in Fy25
3) Domestic LPG prices also hiked by Rs50/cyl, effectively bringing down LPG losses for OMCs by 23%
