The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has lowered sugar production estimate to 26.4 million tonnes (mt) mainly because of reduced sugarcane yield in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which has brought down cane availability. It has also reduced the diversion of sugar towards ethanol to 3.5 mt.

ISMA, the industry body of private sugar mills, released its second advance estimates on January 31 in which it said the net sugar production in the 2024-25 sugar season (October-September) might be 27.25 mt and the diversion of sugar (in terms of sucrose) towards ethanol would be 3.75 mt. In its first estimate, released in November last year, ISMA had pegged net sugar production at 29.3 mt.

As of March 10, 2025, sugar production this season reached 23.31 mt (includes 7.88 mt in UP, 7.81 mt in Maharashtra and 3.89 mt in Karnataka), with 228 mills currently operational across the country, ISMA said in a statement.

Better recovery in UP

“In Uttar Pradesh, improved plant cane recovery and yield may extend the crushing season until April. However, some mills in east and central Uttar Pradesh are likely to close by the end of March,” it said adding some mills in Karnataka are expected to resume operations during a special season starting in June-July 2025.

According to its revised estimate, the net sugar production in Uttar Pradesh may be 9.25 mt (previous estimate 9.51 mt), in Maharashtra it may be 8.1 mt ( 8.84 mt) and in Karnataka 4.15 mt (3.98 mt). These three States have a combined share of more than 80 per cent in India’s total sugar output.

The industry body said after considering the opening stock of 8 mt at the beginning of the season as of October 1, 2024 and the expected production, the closing stock as of September 30 is likely to be 5.4 mt. It has pegged the domestic consumption at 28 mt.

“Supported by a favourable south-west monsoon in 2024 and good water availability in reservoirs, planting for 2025-26 season has reportedly improved in Maharashtra and Karnataka,” ISMA said. Further, it said the 2025-26 crushing season is set to begin on time in October 2025, the closing stock by the end of the current season is expected to be more than adequate.

The varietal replacement activity in Uttar Pradesh and other north Indian States has shown marked improvement. This would also result in better yields and recovery in 2025-26 sugar season in these regions, it claimed.