Wheat prices have begun to decline at agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards across the country with its production now estimated to be higher than last year in view of multi-year high arrivals, traders said.

“Wheat production is 10 per cent higher than initial estimates. It is higher than last year. The quality is also good. Fears of the crop being affected by weather have proved to be unfounded,” said a New Delhi-based miller. 

The trade expects production in excess of 105 million tonnes (mt). In its second advance estimate, the Agriculture Ministry pegged wheat production at a record 115.43 mt. The US Department of Agriculture has estimated the Indian crop at 115 mt. 

Arrivals data

According to Agmarknet, a unit of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, wheat arrivals between March 1 and April 7 (March 1 has been taken into consideration to account for early arrivals) were 41.82 lakh tonnes. During the same period a year ago, it was 26.49 lakh tonnes. 

Data also show arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra are higher. With harvest beginning in Haryana and Punjab, the crop is just trickling in.

Mills based in Delhi are able to get wheat at ₹2,500 a quintal. According to Agmarknet, a unit of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the weighted average price of wheat current is ₹2,499. 

However, in some of the APMCs, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, a little lower than the minimum support price of ₹2,425 fixed by the Government for this year. During the same time a year ago, the weighted average price was ₹2,392 but the MSP was ₹2,275. A month ago, the weighted average price was ₹2,710. 

Comfortable situation

“The arrivals are setting to rest motivated data supporting imports,” said a New Delhi-based trade analyst.

 “The crop is expected to be at least 10 per cent higher than last year. The country should be comfortable with the wheat situation as stocks at the beginning were 4 million tonnes higher,” said a South India-based miller.

Data show that the Food Corporation of India (FCI) has procured 18.96 lakh tonnes of wheat as of April 7 compared with 11.76 lakh tonnes a year ago. Even before the official procurement of April 1, FCI had bought at least six lakh tonnes in its warehouses due to early procurement in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. 

The Centre hopes to procure a good volume in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where farmers are paid a bonus of ₹175 and ₹150 a quintal, respectively. The Food Corporation of India is also making the MSP payment for the procured grain in 1-2 days at one go. This has helped higher procurement.

Trade sources said wheat harvest has been completed in over two-thirds of  Madhya Pradesh areas, almost fully in Gujarat and 50-60 per cent in Rajasthan. 

“The production in Punjab and Haryana may exceed more than 10 per cent from last year as seen from the current crop, which will pick up harvesting from April 4, after Baisakhi festival,” the sources said.

UP developments

The trade, however, is irked by developments in Uttar Pradesh as the State is allegedly preventing private traders from buying wheat. There are complaints about the non-availability of railway rakes, forcing southern States’ flour millers to pay an additional ₹200-300/quintal for transportation through trucks. 

In some of the districts, farmers are reportedly receiving less than MSP. For example, in APMC yards such as Bindki, Doharighat, Gopiganj, wheat prices have dropped to around ₹2,350. 

“When normal buying activities are curbed, there will be less demand for the wheat. It is happening in Uttar Pradesh. Last year, the State was on an overdrive due to the general election to ensure there was no resentment by farmers and allowed private trade’s participation in buying,” said an industry source. 

Since there is no such urgency this time and farmer organisations are also silent, the government is trying to purchase maximum possible wheat by May 15, the source said.

This year’s wheat production is higher than the 113.29 mt produced last year. However, the trade has disputed the Government’s crop estimated in 2023 and 2024, pegging them around 100 mt.  

Published on April 9, 2025