Stock Market Highlights 13 March 2025: Sensex sheds 201 points, Nifty ends below 22,400; realty, media top drag

Table of Content


MS On SBI Life

Overweight Call, Target Price Rs1,910/sh

Mgmt Confident Of Achieving Early Teens Individual APE Growth In FY25 & Sustaining That in FY26

This Would Be Led by Strong Agency Growth (25%+)

Expects SBI Channel APE To Grow Only 10% In FY26

It Did Cite Focus On Product Mix Away From ULIP To Higher-Margin Products

It Expects An FY26 VNB Margin Of 26.5-28%

Positive Impact of Product Mix Shift Is Likely to Be Offset by Higher Agency Mix

Its Pure Protection Product on SBI’s YONO App Is Seeing Good Traction

It Is Looking to Raise Sum Assured To Rs5-7 m From Rs2-4 m

MS On ICICI Lombard

Overweight Call, Target Price Rs1,910/sh

Management Expects Industry Premium Growth of 8.5% In FY26

Co Should Deliver 100-200 bps Higher Led by Growth in Fire, Commercial Lines & Retail Health

It Expects Motor Third Party Price Hikes to Be Muted On A Headline Basis, With Hikes & Cuts In Select Segments

Mgmt Expects Many Insurers to Likely Lower Commissions or Lower Growth in Segments

With Higher Commissions as They Need to Comply With EOM Limits in F26

Expects To Improve The Combined Ratio From The Current 102% Over Time

It Could Help It Migrate From a Sustainable 16-18% ROE to 18-20%

HSBC On AMCs

Net Flows In ‘Equity’ & ‘Hybrid’ Funds For The Ind Declined MoM In Feb’25

Gross SIP Flows Remained Resilient

Large AMCs Are Gaining Market Share in Their Top Schemes

Relative Scheme Performance and Distribution Key Differentiator

Equity AUM Growth Outlook Remains Weak for Sector, Pressure on Net Flows, Muted MTM Gains

Nomura On BEL

Buy Call, Target Price Rs363/sh

As Expected, Ordering Activities Have Picked Up Significantly in Q4FY25

Co Received Order Inflows Worth Rs72 bn Till Now in Q4FY25 Vs Rs98 bn In 9MFY25

Total Order Inflows Till Now In FY25 Have Reached Rs170 bn Vs Guidance Of Rs250 bn

BEL is on Track to Achieve Its Guided Order Inflows as Co Is Currently in Final Stages of Multiple Negotiations With Customers

Increasing Defence Spending by Europe Could Be Positive for BEL as It Has Strong Collaborations With Major OEMs

Stock Trades at 35x/30x FY26/FY27 EPS

Jefferies on Cement

Tamil Nadu Govt Notified A New Rs160/t Tax On Limestone Mining

On Cement Basis, This Implies Rs140-160/t Of Additional Cost On Cement Produced In The State

This Announcement Is Specific To Tamil Nadu As Of Now, While May Set A Precedent For Other States

For South-Focused Players, We Est Rs40-70/T Impact On Dalmia/Ramco’s EBITDA

Further Necessitating Px Hikes in Beleaguered South Region

CLSA On IndusInd BK

Outperform Call, Target Price Cut To Rs900/sh From Rs1,300/sh

Past Few Days Have Been Tumultuous With A One-Year Extension for MD

Net Worth Hit Of Rs15 bn Due To An Accounting Gap

Investors, Naturally, Fear There Is More to Come

Over the Next 2-3 Quarters, There Will Be Lingering Uncertainty Over More Skeletons In The Closet & Mgmt Continuity

If A PSU Banker Is Appointed, There Would Be Even More Negative Sentiment for Stock

A Potential Invoking of Promoter’s Stock Pledge by Its

Lenders Would Add to the Uncertainty

Over Time, Believe Its Fundamentals Will Take Over

Two Fundamental Positives in Near Term Are a Recovery In Microfinance

Respite For Margin From Better Banking System Liquidity & Rate Cuts

MS On Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare

Initiate Overweight Call, Target Price Rs502/sh

India’s Eyecare Ind Has a High TAM, High Barriers To Entry & High Returns As It Is Asset-Light

As Segment’s Leading Brand, Backed By A Doctor-

Promoter Team, Dr Agarwal’s Appears Well Positioned To Outperform

Revenues at 1.7x the Level of Its Closest Peer

Forecast 19% Revenue and EBITDA CAGRs, F25-27e

Macquarie On Adani Green Energy

Initiate Outperform Call, Target Price Rs1,200/sh

Leading India’s Energy Transition With Targeted 50GW Capacity by FY30 Vs 12GW Now

More Conservative Pathway Implies 25% EBITDA CAGR Over Next 5 Years

Build in Steady Blended Realisations

Recent Decline in PPA Tariffs Is Offset by Increasing Share of Higher-Tariff Merchant Capacities

Heavy Capex Backed by Steady Cash Flows

Expect Co to Generate $1.8 Bn Annual Operating Cash Flow Against a Cumulative Capex Requirement of Over $10 Bn Through FY30

Despite This High Capex, Expect Net Debt/EBITDA Declining to 5x by FY30 Vs 7x Now

Macquarie on REC

Outperform rating with TP of Rs 700 – 74% upside

See 15% growth every year; will reach Rs 10 lac crore by 2030

30% out of Rs 10 lac crore will be renewable projects, 50-55% from generation and distribution, and rest from logistics and infra

In the last two years, Rs 3.98 lac crore of MOUs were signed out of which Rs 1.9 lac crores have been sanctioned

Remaining to be sanctioned in 2025 and 2026; major part of this growth will be seen

Smart meters: Have already sanctioned for 3 crore smart meters. Another 4 cr smart meters in pipeline

From 2026, discoms position will be much better

No loans given with IREDA; IREDA’s ticket size is below Rs 3000 crore, while REC’s projects’ minimum range is Rs 5-20k crore

UBS on Telecom

Retain Neutral on Bharti Airtel: India business is trading at an implied FY27e EV/EBITDA of 11x, with limited upcoming positive catalysts.

Indus Tower – TP Rs 440

Idea – TP Rs 12.1

Bharti A – TP Rs 1705

UBS on Indian Hotels

Buy, TP raised to Rs 925

Co well placed to gain from positive demand trends, which, coupled with a favourable base

Existing projects in industry continue to be delayed &expect supply growth to be capped at 4-5%

Increase FY26-27E EBITDA 1-2%

JPM on Tata Steel

OW, TP raised to Rs 180

Europe steel spreads are up 18% QoQ & +60% on spot basis (v. 3Q avg); this is likely not incorporated in consensus est & believe 

Tata’s Europe biz should reach EBITDA breakeven in 1QFY26



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