MS On SBI Life
Overweight Call, Target Price Rs1,910/sh
Mgmt Confident Of Achieving Early Teens Individual APE Growth In FY25 & Sustaining That in FY26
This Would Be Led by Strong Agency Growth (25%+)
Expects SBI Channel APE To Grow Only 10% In FY26
It Did Cite Focus On Product Mix Away From ULIP To Higher-Margin Products
It Expects An FY26 VNB Margin Of 26.5-28%
Positive Impact of Product Mix Shift Is Likely to Be Offset by Higher Agency Mix
Its Pure Protection Product on SBI’s YONO App Is Seeing Good Traction
It Is Looking to Raise Sum Assured To Rs5-7 m From Rs2-4 m
MS On ICICI Lombard
Overweight Call, Target Price Rs1,910/sh
Management Expects Industry Premium Growth of 8.5% In FY26
Co Should Deliver 100-200 bps Higher Led by Growth in Fire, Commercial Lines & Retail Health
It Expects Motor Third Party Price Hikes to Be Muted On A Headline Basis, With Hikes & Cuts In Select Segments
Mgmt Expects Many Insurers to Likely Lower Commissions or Lower Growth in Segments
With Higher Commissions as They Need to Comply With EOM Limits in F26
Expects To Improve The Combined Ratio From The Current 102% Over Time
It Could Help It Migrate From a Sustainable 16-18% ROE to 18-20%
HSBC On AMCs
Net Flows In ‘Equity’ & ‘Hybrid’ Funds For The Ind Declined MoM In Feb’25
Gross SIP Flows Remained Resilient
Large AMCs Are Gaining Market Share in Their Top Schemes
Relative Scheme Performance and Distribution Key Differentiator
Equity AUM Growth Outlook Remains Weak for Sector, Pressure on Net Flows, Muted MTM Gains
Nomura On BEL
Buy Call, Target Price Rs363/sh
As Expected, Ordering Activities Have Picked Up Significantly in Q4FY25
Co Received Order Inflows Worth Rs72 bn Till Now in Q4FY25 Vs Rs98 bn In 9MFY25
Total Order Inflows Till Now In FY25 Have Reached Rs170 bn Vs Guidance Of Rs250 bn
BEL is on Track to Achieve Its Guided Order Inflows as Co Is Currently in Final Stages of Multiple Negotiations With Customers
Increasing Defence Spending by Europe Could Be Positive for BEL as It Has Strong Collaborations With Major OEMs
Stock Trades at 35x/30x FY26/FY27 EPS
Jefferies on Cement
Tamil Nadu Govt Notified A New Rs160/t Tax On Limestone Mining
On Cement Basis, This Implies Rs140-160/t Of Additional Cost On Cement Produced In The State
This Announcement Is Specific To Tamil Nadu As Of Now, While May Set A Precedent For Other States
For South-Focused Players, We Est Rs40-70/T Impact On Dalmia/Ramco’s EBITDA
Further Necessitating Px Hikes in Beleaguered South Region
CLSA On IndusInd BK
Outperform Call, Target Price Cut To Rs900/sh From Rs1,300/sh
Past Few Days Have Been Tumultuous With A One-Year Extension for MD
Net Worth Hit Of Rs15 bn Due To An Accounting Gap
Investors, Naturally, Fear There Is More to Come
Over the Next 2-3 Quarters, There Will Be Lingering Uncertainty Over More Skeletons In The Closet & Mgmt Continuity
If A PSU Banker Is Appointed, There Would Be Even More Negative Sentiment for Stock
A Potential Invoking of Promoter’s Stock Pledge by Its
Lenders Would Add to the Uncertainty
Over Time, Believe Its Fundamentals Will Take Over
Two Fundamental Positives in Near Term Are a Recovery In Microfinance
Respite For Margin From Better Banking System Liquidity & Rate Cuts
MS On Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare
Initiate Overweight Call, Target Price Rs502/sh
India’s Eyecare Ind Has a High TAM, High Barriers To Entry & High Returns As It Is Asset-Light
As Segment’s Leading Brand, Backed By A Doctor-
Promoter Team, Dr Agarwal’s Appears Well Positioned To Outperform
Revenues at 1.7x the Level of Its Closest Peer
Forecast 19% Revenue and EBITDA CAGRs, F25-27e
Macquarie On Adani Green Energy
Initiate Outperform Call, Target Price Rs1,200/sh
Leading India’s Energy Transition With Targeted 50GW Capacity by FY30 Vs 12GW Now
More Conservative Pathway Implies 25% EBITDA CAGR Over Next 5 Years
Build in Steady Blended Realisations
Recent Decline in PPA Tariffs Is Offset by Increasing Share of Higher-Tariff Merchant Capacities
Heavy Capex Backed by Steady Cash Flows
Expect Co to Generate $1.8 Bn Annual Operating Cash Flow Against a Cumulative Capex Requirement of Over $10 Bn Through FY30
Despite This High Capex, Expect Net Debt/EBITDA Declining to 5x by FY30 Vs 7x Now
Macquarie on REC
Outperform rating with TP of Rs 700 – 74% upside
See 15% growth every year; will reach Rs 10 lac crore by 2030
30% out of Rs 10 lac crore will be renewable projects, 50-55% from generation and distribution, and rest from logistics and infra
In the last two years, Rs 3.98 lac crore of MOUs were signed out of which Rs 1.9 lac crores have been sanctioned
Remaining to be sanctioned in 2025 and 2026; major part of this growth will be seen
Smart meters: Have already sanctioned for 3 crore smart meters. Another 4 cr smart meters in pipeline
From 2026, discoms position will be much better
No loans given with IREDA; IREDA’s ticket size is below Rs 3000 crore, while REC’s projects’ minimum range is Rs 5-20k crore
UBS on Telecom
Retain Neutral on Bharti Airtel: India business is trading at an implied FY27e EV/EBITDA of 11x, with limited upcoming positive catalysts.
Indus Tower – TP Rs 440
Idea – TP Rs 12.1
Bharti A – TP Rs 1705
UBS on Indian Hotels
Buy, TP raised to Rs 925
Co well placed to gain from positive demand trends, which, coupled with a favourable base
Existing projects in industry continue to be delayed &expect supply growth to be capped at 4-5%
Increase FY26-27E EBITDA 1-2%
JPM on Tata Steel
OW, TP raised to Rs 180
Europe steel spreads are up 18% QoQ & +60% on spot basis (v. 3Q avg); this is likely not incorporated in consensus est & believe
Tata’s Europe biz should reach EBITDA breakeven in 1QFY26
