•Fixed Income
The New 10-Year Benchmark GOI 6.79 2034 traded between 6.32% – 6.39% during the week ending on 02nd May 2025 (Closing yield: 6.3538%).
The Old 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.10 2034 traded between 6.33% – 6.40% during the week ending on 02nd May 2025 (Closing yield: 6.3671%), tracking movement involved around US Treasury, Currency, Crude Oil, US Job data and RBI announcement of OMO purchase.
•Auction Highlights
RBI conducted the Auction for G-sec, SDL, and T-bills for the aggregated amount of INR 36,000 crore, INR 24,700 Crore and INR 19,000 Crore, respectively.
G-sec Cutoff:
6.64% GS 2027: 101.49/6.0080%\u0009
New GS 2035: 6.33%
SDL Cutoff:
07 Years: HP 6.65%, UP 6.67%
09 Years: HP 6.79%
10 Years: RJ 6.70%, UK 6.74%
12 Years: MH 6.77%
13 Years: MH 6.77%, HR 6.75%
14 Years: MH 6.78%
15 Years: MH 6.75%, TR 6.75%
18 Years: PN 6.77%
21 Years: KL 6.78%
22 Years: RJ 6.78%
27 Years: TS 6.79%
30 Years: TN 6.79%
31 Years: TS 6.79%
Re-issue of 7.42% Rajasthan SGS 2032, issued on May 22, 2024 at 104.22/6.6600%
T-Bill Cutoff:
091 Days: INR 9000 Crore 98.5495/5.9036%
182 Days: INR 5000 Crore 97.1300/5.9258%
364 Days: INR 5000 Crore 94.4301/5.9164%\u0009
•Commodities:
1)Brent Crude Oil: $59.30-$67.57 (Per barrel) (Closing: $61.29)
2)Gold: INR 9,551-INR 9,791 24 Carat (1 Gram)
3)Silver: INR 98,000-INR 1,00,500 (1 KG)
•Currency:
1)USD/INR: 83.765-85.419 ($) (Closing: 85.527)
•US Treasury Yield:
1)US 2 Years Treasury: 3.55%-3.84% (Closing: 3.823%)
2)US 5 Years Treasury: 3.68%-3.94% (Closing: 3.916%)
3)US 10 Years Treasury: 4.12%-4.33% (Closing: 4.307%)
•Corporate Bond Highlights
1)AAA 3 Years Bond traded between 6.90%-6.95% this week.
2)AAA 5 Years Bond traded between 6.90%-6.95% this week.
3)AAA 10 Years Bond traded between 6.95%-7.00% this week.
•News Highlights
INDIA
1)India’s industrial output grew 3% year-on-year in March, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), down from 5.5% in the same month last year due to weaker performance in manufacturing, mining, and electricity sectors. The growth fell short of economists’ expectations of 3.3%. February’s industrial growth was revised to 2.7% from the earlier 2.9%. In March, manufacturing output rose 3% (up from 2.8% in February), and electricity generation increased 6.3%, compared to 3.6% in the previous month.
2)India’s net goods and services tax (GST) receipts grew 9.1 per cent in April to hit a fresh monthly record of over ₹2.09 trillion, making a significant improvement over the mild 7.3 per cent uptick in revenues this March, despite a 40 per cent sequential surge in refunds.
3)Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions in April this year fell by 2 per cent to 17.89 billion, while the transaction value decreased by 3 per cent to ₹23.95 trillion, following a strong performance in March 2025 due to year-end sales. In March, the volume reached 18.3 billion and the value stood at ₹24.77 trillion, marking a 14 per cent and 13 per cent rise, respectively, from February, according to data from the National Payments Corporation of India. Markedly, April 2025 numbers showed a 34 per cent increase in volume and a 22 per cent rise in value compared to the same month last financial year.
4)Retail inflation for farm workers eased to 3.73% in March 2025 from 4.05% in February, while inflation for rural workers declined to 3.86% from 4.10%, according to official data released Wednesday. The All-India Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (CPI-AL) fell by 3 points to 1,306, and the CPI for Rural Labourers (CPI-RL) dropped by 2 points to 1,319 in March, compared to 1,309 and 1,321 points respectively in February.
5)The rate of interest on Government of India Floating Rate Bond 2034 (GOI FRB 2034) applicable for the half year April 30, 2025 to October 29, 2025 shall be 6.99 per cent per annum. It may be recalled that FRB 2034 carries a coupon, which has a base rate equivalent to the average of the Weighted Average Yield (WAY) of last three auctions (from the rate fixing day i.e., April 30, 2025) of 182 Day T-Bills, plus a fixed spread (0.98 per cent).
6)As of the fortnight ended March 21, 2025, non-food bank credit grew by 12.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 16.3% in the same period last year. Credit to agriculture and allied activities rose by 10.4% (vs. 20.0% y-o-y previously), while credit to industry maintained a steady growth of 8.0%. Within industry, segments like petroleum, basic metals, engineering, and construction saw faster growth, though infrastructure credit growth slowed. The services sector recorded a 13.4% increase in credit (down from 20.8%), mainly due to slower credit to NBFCs, while professional services and trade remained strong. Personal loans grew by 14.0% (compared to 17.6% y-o-y), with slower momentum in vehicle loans, credit card outstanding, and other personal loans.
7)In March 2025, India’s services exports (receipts) stood at US$ 35,600 million, registering a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 18.6%, while imports (payments) were US$ 17,475 million, up by 5.3%. In February 2025, exports were US$ 31,625 million (11.6% y-o-y growth) and imports were US$ 14,506 million (a decline of 4.8%). In January 2025, exports totaled US$ 34,726 million (12.0% growth) and imports were US$ 16,706 million (12.6% growth). All figures are provisional and based on revised balance of payments data.
8)In March 2025, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans by scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) was 9.35%, slightly down from 9.40% in February, while the WALR on outstanding rupee loans eased to 9.77% from 9.80%. The 1-year median MCLR remained steady at 9.00% in April 2025. On the deposit side, the weighted average domestic term deposit rate (WADTDR) on fresh rupee term deposits rose to 6.65% in March from 6.49% in February, and the WADTDR on outstanding deposits inched up to 7.03% from 7.02%.
9)According to data released by the RBI, as on April 18, 2025, total deposits (excluding interbank) of all scheduled banks stood at ₹23.36 lakh crore, marginally lower than ₹23.62 lakh crore on April 4, 2025, but higher than ₹21.22 lakh crore a year ago. Bank credit (excluding interbank advances) was ₹18.66 lakh crore, slightly down from ₹18.87 lakh crore in the previous fortnight, yet up from ₹16.93 lakh crore as on April 19, 2024. Investments (at book value) increased to ₹6.84 lakh crore, compared to ₹6.82 lakh crore two weeks ago and ₹6.30 lakh crore a year earlier. Borrowings from the RBI saw a sharp decline to ₹24,763 crore, from ₹60,031 crore in early April and ₹85,339 crore a year back. Cash balances with banks stood at ₹84,425 crore, while balances with the RBI were ₹9.28 lakh crore. Food credit outstanding was ₹32,125.64 crore for Scheduled Commercial Banks and ₹51,974 crore for Scheduled Co-operative Banks. The number of Scheduled Commercial Banks stood at 135 during the fortnight.
10)India’s foreign exchange reserves rose for the eighth week in a row to reach $688.13 billion as on April 25, data released by the Reserve Bank of India showed on Friday. The reserves are up by $1.98 billion. Foreign currency assets, a key component of India’s reserves, rose by $2.17 billion to $580.66 billion, the central bank said in its weekly statistical report. Meanwhile, Gold reserves decreased by $207 million to $84.37 billion. Further, Special Drawing Rights (SDR) were up $21 million to $18.59 billion. India’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) rose by $2 million to $4.51 billion.
11)India’s manufacturing sector saw an improvement in April 2025, supported by a rise in new export orders following the recent tariff decision by the US. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 58.2, slightly up from 58.1 in March, indicating continued expansion in the sector. According to S&P Global, the uptick was driven by faster increases in employment, production, and stocks of purchases. The PMI is based on survey responses from around 400 manufacturers, and any reading above 50 reflects expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.
12) India’s industrial output grew by 3% year-on-year in March 2025, up from 2.9% in February, but lower than the 5.5% growth seen in March 2024, as per data from the Ministry of Statistics. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to 164.8, from 160.0 a year earlier. Sector-wise, manufacturing grew 3%, electricity jumped 6.3% (vs 3.6% in February), and mining edged up 0.4% (vs 1.6%). Within manufacturing, 13 of 23 industries saw growth, led by electrical equipment (15.7%), motor vehicles (10.3%), and basic metals (6.9%). Among use-based categories, infrastructure/construction goods rose 8.8%, primary goods 3.1%, and consumer durables 6.6%, while consumer non-durables declined 4.7%.
WORLD
1)OPEC+, in a meeting held on May 3, 2025, agreed to raise oil output by 411,000 barrels per day in June, marking the second consecutive month of accelerated hikes. This decision comes despite oil prices falling below $60 per barrel, a four-year low, amid concerns over weakening global demand triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The group, following a brief online meeting, stated that market fundamentals remain healthy and inventories are low. The move also reflects Saudi Arabia’s push to penalize Iraq and Kazakhstan for non-compliance with production quotas and aligns with Trump’s calls for increased output.
2)The number of job openings on the last business day of March stood at 7.19 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed 7.48 million openings (revised from 7.56 million) reported in February and came in below the market expectation of 7.5 million.
3)Private sector employment in the US rose 62,000 in April and annual paw was up 4.5% year-over-year, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 147,000 increase (revised from 155,000) recorded in March and missed the market expectation of 108,000 by a wide margin.
4)Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 177,000 in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 185,000 increase (revised from 228,000) reported in March and came in better than the analysts’ estimate of 130,000.
5)The US Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, as expected, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.6% from 62.5%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 3.8%.
6)In the week ending April 26, 2025, the US reported 241,000 initial jobless claims, up from the previous week’s revised figure of 223,000 (initially 222,000) and exceeding market expectations of 224,000, according to the Department of Labor. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stood at 1.3%, with the number of continuing claims rising to 1,916,000—an increase of 83,000 from the prior week—marking the highest level since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000.
7)The US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%, primarily due to a sharp 41.3% surge in imports, with goods imports rising by 50.9%, ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Since imports are subtracted from GDP, the decline may be seen as temporary. The data sends mixed signals to the Federal Reserve—while the negative growth could support a case for rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns may lead policymakers to hold off.
8)The business activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector continued to contract in April, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edging lower to 48.7 from 49 in March. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 48. The Employment Index improved to 46.5 from 44.7 in this period, pointing to a decrease in the sector’s payrolls at a softening pace. In the meantime, the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component of the survey, rose to 69.8 from 69.4.
9)The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™️ (PMI®️) recorded 50.2 in April, unchanged since March. Although above the crucial 50 no-change mark for the fourth consecutive month, the index again signaled only a marginal expansion.
10)The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI in April 2025 was revised up to 45.4, indicating a continued contraction in the sector. While slightly higher than the 17-month low of 44.9 in March, the reading remains below the 50.0 no-change level for the seventh consecutive month.
11)In March 2025, US inflation, measured by the PCE Price Index, eased to 2.3% year-on-year from 2.5% in February, slightly above the expected 2.2%. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 2.6%, down from 3%, aligning with forecasts, and remained flat on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, personal income and personal spending rose by 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, both exceeding market expectations.
12)The latest Redbook Index (YoY) for the US is 6.1% and was reported on April 26, 2025. The previous release was 7.4%. This index is a weekly measure of same-store sales growth in the U.S. retail sector, tracking sales from a sample of large retailers
13)The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. The decision was unanimous. The BOJ also reiterated its hawkish guidance that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized.
14)The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in April 2025, up from a flash estimate of 48.5 and March’s 12-month low of 48.4, marking a 10th straight month of contraction, due to weaker demand and worsening concerns about U.S. tariffs.
15)The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI inched higher to 49 in April of 2025 from 48.6 in the previous month, reflecting the softest pace of contraction in factory activity in over two years, and revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 48.7.
16)The Eurozone economy grew by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, matching the previous quarter’s pace and surpassing market expectations for a 1% expansion, a flash estimate showed. Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, Germany remained in recession, with GDP contracting by 0.2% year-on-year in Q1.
Meanwhile, France and Italy posted modest growth of 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, while Spain outpaced its peers with a strong 2.8% expansion.
17)In April 2025, China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 from 50.5 in March, indicating a contraction in factory activity. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI also eased to 50.4 from 50.8, showing slower expansion in services and construction. Meanwhile, the Caixin General Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4 from 51.2, signaling a moderation in private-sector manufacturing growth.
