Russia clawed back some of its lost market share from Middle East, inching close to its past 40 per cent share, during April 2025 helped by softening prices of its flagship grade—Urals.
Shipments of the medium sour grade, which accounted for almost 80 per cent of the cumulative Russian shipments into India during April 2025 rose to a 10-month high, slightly more than in March.
India imported around 1.95 million barrels per day (kb/d) crude oil from Russia last month. Of this, Urals’ share was 79 per cent followed by CPC Russia (9 per cent), ESPO (5.2 per cent), Sokol (2.1 per cent) and Varandey (1.3 per cent), data from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler showed.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, attributed Russia’s strong showing to a mix of economic, operational, and geopolitical factors.
“Russia’s strong showing was underpinned by a confluence of economic, operational, and geopolitical factors. The pricing advantage of Urals—trading at a (if not steep but considerable) discount to West African and Middle Eastern barrels—was a key driver, supporting improved refinery gross margins,” he told businessline.
Sanctions enforcement remains porous, allowing Indian refiners to secure stable supplies. Additionally, drone attacks on Russian refineries in January-March 2025 disrupted domestic processing, temporarily boosting crude exports, he added.
On demand areas, Ritolia pointed out that pre-summer stocking, strong industrial activity, and agricultural fuel demand supported April volumes.
Looking ahead, Russian crude’s share in India’s mix is expected to remain elevated in the 30–35 per cent range, barring a sharp recovery in Russian refinery throughput which may begin tightening exports modestly beyond May, he anticipated.
Modest rebound
“That said, our data also points to a modest rebound in Russian refining throughput by 100,000–300,000 b/d over the next few months, which could reduce export availability by a similar margin. This may slightly temper flows post-May,” Ritolia added.
India’s crude oil imports in April 2025 held firm near 4.92 mb/d, with Russia reaffirming its dominance, he said adding, Iraq retained its position as the second-largest supplier, maintaining consistent volumes of Basrah crude.
“Saudi Arabia, however, ceded ground in the rankings as Indian refiners prioritised barrels with greater marginal value. Notably, Nigeria’s share surged on the back of rising demand for lighter grades at Vizag refinery, where new Resid Hydrocracker Units (RHCU) remain in commissioning mode,” Ritolia explained.
Published on May 4, 2025
