Share Market Highlights 11 April 2025: Sensex, Nifty rally nearly 2% as US pauses tariffs; metal stocks shine

Table of Content


Kotak

Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 3800 from Rs 3900

Weak print

International business grows 0.6% qoq; better growth in developed markets

EBIT margin misses estimate by 70 bps

Healthy deal TCV in H2 provides some growth visibility in FY26

TCS will be more resilient, although the gap has narrowed

Citi

Maintain Sell; Cut TP to Rs 3000 from Rs 3210

Delivered a weak Q4; EBIT ~3% below est, driven by lower EBIT margin

Mgmt. commentary – Uncertainty crept in March; saw decision making delays & ramp downs in some cases

Sector growth has been challenged; uncertainty will make it tougher

Valuations remain high in that context

UBS

Buy Call, Target Price At Rs4,250/sh

Q4 Marginally Below Expectations Albeit Strong Deal TCV Of $ 12.2 bn, Aided Comfort

North America Order Book Of $6.8 bn, Highest-ever, Was Encouraging

Mgmt Did Call Out Seeing Deal Deferrals & Delayed Decision Making In Some Segments During Quarter

Mgmt Continue To See Robust Deal Momentum In North American BFSI

Despite The Macro Uncertainty, Management Sees Possibility Of FY26 To Be Better Than FY25

Nomura

Neutral, TP cut to Rs 3490

More misses than hits in 4Q FY25

Growth visibility for FY26F is still hazy

Management continues to expect FY26E to be better than FY25 for major markets

2-3% cut in FY26-27F EPS; stk trades at 21.4x FY27F EPS

GS

Buy, TP cut to Rs 3960

Q4: both rev growth & EBIT margins marginally below GSe

Co’s commentary, flat headcount & deferred wage hike suggest an uncertain growth outlook

Co is seeing delays in decision-making, with some project ramp downs, & discretionary spends

Jefferies

Hold, TP cut to Rs 3400

4Q missed est. all across with margin miss being key -ve surprise

Growing pressures on discretionary IT spends & delays in decision-making is likely to limit growth & margin expansion

Cut FY26/27 EPS est. by 3.5% 

Brokerages on Tata Steel

JPMorgan

Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 180

Netherlands transformation program to target EUR500mn+ cost savings over FY26-27

Positive development against a tough macro backdrop

Investor focus in the near term likely remains on the second order impact of demand destruction

Believe TATA’s structural cost reduction initiatives should not be ignored

Macquarie

Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 156

Cost optimisation to aid decarbonisation capex

#Netherlands operations restructuring to achieve cost optimisation

FY26 savings target should start reflecting in Q2 and achieved by Q4

Do not expect the company to incur any meaningful capex to achieve the targeted savings

Execution is key

CITI

Sell, TP Rs 115

TSN has adopted a comprehensive transformation program; will reduce controllable costs by 15%

While this potentially implies an EBITDA/t improvement on $70-80/t, are unsure of -ve impact arising from global tariffs on demand & margins

CLSA

Hold Call, Target Price At `145/sh

Transformation Program For Netherlands Biz Aims To Cut Controllable Costs By 15% & Save €500 m In FY26

Expecting €80/t Profitability Improvement, But Will Monitor Further EBITDA Changes

Brokerages on Sun Pharma

Investec

Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1980

Federal Circuit court has lifted preliminary injunction on Leqselvi’s launch in the US, paving the path for its launch

Court case with #Incyte shall continue and in case Incyte wins, Sun could be liable for damages

Believe Incyte’s incentives to settle are low and cannot conclude if they are more willing to settle now

Over the next 2-3 years Leqselvi’s ramp up is likely to be slow around sub $100m sales

Jefferies

Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 2265

Injunction for hair loss drug #LEQSELVI lifted in US, paves the way for a launch

The preliminary injunction had delayed Sun’s launch despite a US FDA approval

Preliminary injunction is no longer in effect and hence the company is no longer under a court order that delays or restricts it from launching LEQSELVI

Sun will disclose LEQSELVI launch plans in due course of time

Believe this ruling clears a major roadblock for Sun

Estimate sales of $50-70m in FY27 or ~3-5% of Sun’s global specialty sales

Nomura

Neutral Call, Target Price At Rs1,970/sh

Leqselvi’s Preliminary Injunction Lifted; Launch Expected In FY26

Gradual Traction In The Alopecia Areata Market.

Sun Pharma May Achieve Global Peak Sales Of More Than $500 m

Brokerages on RBI Draft Gold lending Norms

Nuvama

RBI’s new draft gold finance norms will be negative for growth

Though they are less strict than feared

LTV definition has been tightened more for NBFCs than banks

LTV of 75% or less will need to be maintained through the loan life, failing which there will be a penalty

This rule already exists for banks, but is new for NBFCs

Income generation loans need not be shown as gold loans, but to be classified as per business use

The new norms will impact loan growth for NBFCs more than banks

Muthoot stands most impacted

MS

Revised LTV definition for bullet loans could affect loan growth

This could be offset by the countercyclical nature of the segment

Monthly interest servicing not being mandated and rollover of bullet loans being allowed once interest is paid at maturity are better outcomes than feared

Muthoot’s countercyclical business could still ensure strong earnings vs. other NBFCs

Estimate ROE of 20% and 18% even if AUM is flat in FY26 and FY27 for Muthoot

Muthoot stock could be under pressure in the near term

Manappuram stock is better placed given Bain’s open offer price

Macquarie

Draft gold lending norms more punitive for NBFCs

For bullet repayment loans LTV should be computed on the total payment

Believe the impact of this will reduce the effective LTV of the product given the buffers required

Believe a separate collateral requirement could affect potential demand

Believe banks currently follow most of the regulations

The potential impact here will be larger for NBFCs

CLSA

Relief That Bullet Loans & Renewals Are Not Discontinued

RBI’s LTV Caps May Hinder Loan Growth, But Earnings Remain Protected For Muthoot & Manappuram

Expect 12-15% Loan Growth Over FY26-27

Jefferies

RBI’s Draft Norms For Gold Loans May Affect Growth & Provisions

Higher Gold Prices And Manageable Opex Intensity Provide Cushion

Muthoot Target Price At At Rs2,615/sh Is Preferred

Kotak Inst Eqt on Muthoot Fin

Downgrade to Add from Buy, TP cut to Rs 2250 from Rs 2400

Cut estimates by 10%

BI’s draft guidelines on gold loans potentially reduce maximum LTV for gold loan NBFCs, increase competition from moneylenders and/or reduce IRR on loans

While await seeing final form, are moderating growth & margin assumptions

Remain constructive on gold loan business, but expect an overhang of regulatory changes to temper stock performance

CLSA on Tyre Cos

Initiate on MRF, OP – TP Rs 128599

Initiate on Apollo Tyre, High conviction O-P, TP Rs 566

Initiate on Ceat, O-P, TP Rs 3493

Indian tyre market (c.$12bn) is undergoing a structural improvement in terms of profitability &, in turn, capital efficiency

Believe sector is currently at bottom of margin cycle & based on softening input commodity prices, gross margins are set to improve 

With FCF largely agnostic to rev growth, margin cycle, along with capital expenditure discipline, believe is poised to improve

HSBC on Q-Com

QC’s GOV growth will remain in focus for investors in short term amid sustained intense competition

However, consensus food growth expectations are now down to 12-15%

Zomato– Buy, TP cut to Rs 280 from Rs 315

Swiggy – Hold, TP cut to Rs 385 from Rs 460

Jefferies India Strategy

Amidst global uncertainties, absolute index performance is difficult to predict

But India should emerge as a relative outperformed

5 reasons to Overweight India –

Lesser dependence to US & China demand

Relatively lower tariff incidence

Lower oil prices

Low FPI weights

A pro-growth RBI stance

Remain hopeful that the hard stance taken by the US on tariffs would eventually soften

Believe that the weaker economic trend in the US and China would still be our base case

Increase Underweight stance on IT and metals

Add NTPC on power demand improving and BPCL on beneficiary of lower oil prices to portfolio

Remove the listed part of Siemens from our portfolio as its non-power, along with Hindalco and Coforge

Preferred sectors in India are lenders (HDFC Bank, Axis, Chola Finance), power (JSW Energy, NTPC, Coal India), telecom (Bharti Airtel), Autos (TVS, Eicher), and real estate (Macrotech)

CITI on Trump 90-Day Pause

US Cannot avoid slowdown in growth and rise in inflation

Uncertainty over trade will persist and non- China imports may now surge

We continue to expect the Fed to cut policy rates in May or June.

Sector-specific tariffs on autos, aluminum and steel remain in place.

New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are expected.



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